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Manager Miu Titchagut takes the temperature of a chump at Farmhouse Kitchen in Oakland, Calif. on June 23, 2020 afore basement them. The restaurant afresh re-opened to barter for alfresco dine-in account and is testing the temperature of every chump afore sitting them down.

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Manager Miu Titchagut takes the temperature of a chump at Farmhouse Kitchen in Oakland, Calif. on June 23, 2020 afore basement them. The restaurant afresh re-opened to barter for alfresco dine-in service

Photo: Douglas Zimmerman/SFGATE

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Manager Miu Titchagut takes the temperature of a chump at Farmhouse Kitchen in Oakland, Calif. on June 23, 2020 afore basement them. The restaurant afresh re-opened to barter for alfresco dine-in account and is testing the temperature of every chump afore sitting them down.

Manager Miu Titchagut takes the temperature of a chump at Farmhouse Kitchen in Oakland, Calif. on June 23, 2020 afore basement them. The restaurant afresh re-opened to barter for alfresco dine-in service

California scales bottomward projections for Bay Area coronavirus spread

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Two weeks ago, the accompaniment of California appear a new abstracts folio abounding of estimations for the akin of coronavirus manual in every county, as able-bodied as projections for approaching deaths and hospitalizations.

Using estimates from models by UCLA, Imperial College London and more, the accompaniment calculates the accepted abject reproduction cardinal — generally referred to as R “naught,” R0, or R-effective — in anniversary county. R0 represents the accepted cardinal of added cases generated by one accepted case in a citizenry area all individuals are affected to infection. If R0 is decidedly over 1, a canton will see “exponential spread” of the virus.

The accompaniment originally projected the advance of the coronavirus was accretion in six Bay Area counties, with the advance of the virus “rapidly” accretion in Marin County. Over the accomplished two weeks, the forecasts has become abundant added sanguine. Here are the state’s R0 estimates for the nine Bay Area counties, in accession to the state’s appellation for each.

Alameda: R0 = 1.06 “Spread of COVID-19 is acceptable stable.” Was 1.0 on June 25.

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Contra Costa: R0 = 1.18 “Spread of COVID-19 acceptable increasing.” Was 1.29 on June 25.

Marin: R0 = 0.89 “Spread of COVID-19 is acceptable decreasing.” Was 1.42 on June 25.

Napa: R0 = 1.01 “Spread of COVID-19 is acceptable stable.” Was 1.18 on June 25.

San Francisco: R0 = 0.95 “Spread of COVID-19 is acceptable stable.” Was 1.06 on June 25.

San Mateo: R0 = 1.02 “Spread of COVID-19 is acceptable stable.” Was 1.13 on June 25.

Santa Clara: R0 = 0.99 “Spread of COVID-19 is acceptable stable.” Was 1.0 on June 25.

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Solano: R0 = 1.11 “Spread of COVID-19 acceptable increasing.” Was 1.14 on June 25.

Sonoma: R0 = 0.93 “Spread of COVID-19 acceptable stable.” Was 1.16 on June 25.

Marin County’s ahead ample abject reproduction amount coincided with the alpha of the beginning at San Quentin Accompaniment Prison. Bastille cases are not counted in the county’s official case totals, but a canton agent told SFGATE that the state’s models did use the San Quentin abstracts in its projections.

The Marin Canton agent said San Quentin’s numbers are still allotment of the county’s adapted R0 projections, and in fact, the canton believes the affecting abridgement in R0 would not accept happened had the bastille numbers not been allotment of the total. The county’s epidemiology aggregation addendum that the cardinal of alive cases at San Quentin has acutely decreased in the aftermost week, and as a result, the canton believes this accelerated change over time in alive cases has led to the affecting abridgement in R0.

MORE CORONAVIRUS COVERAGE:

Sign up for ‘The Daily’ newsletter for the latest on coronavirus here.

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— San Francisco releases guidelines for schools— Coronavirus cases accretion at UC Berkeley due to frat parties— Bay Area coronavirus hospitalizations abide to acceleration – but there’s a catch— America is active abbreviate on masks, gowns and gloves. Again.—Health official: Trump assemblage ‘likely’ antecedent of virus surge

Eric Ting is an SFGATE agenda reporter. Email: [email protected] | Twitter:@_ericting

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